In July of 2026, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will undergo a joint formal review by representatives of each country. This unilateral free trade agreement that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) six years ago, is at a crossroad given high uncertainty and pressure related to tariff policies, geopolitical disruptions, and economic strains.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce states that USMCA supports 13 million American jobs related to trade with Mexico and Canada. In Detroit, the stakes are even higher. According to the Detroit Regional Chamber’s latest State of the Region Report, Southeast Michigan is the 9th largest exporter in the U.S. with $15 billion of exports to both Canada and Mexico. Exports from Detroit to Canada declined by 12% in 2025.
Canadian Exports from 2024 to 2025
| Commodity | 2024 | 2025 | Rate of Decline |
| Iron & Steel | $2.9B | $2.2B | -25% |
| Aluminum | $1.3B | $1.1B | -17% |
| Vehicles | $12.1B | $10.1B | -17% |
| Vehicle Parts | $9.9B | $8.6B | -13% |
(Source: 2026 State of Logistics Report)
Negotiating in a New Era
International trade has experienced turbulence over the last six years. Tariff volatility has weakened relationships with our closest trading partners and has opened the door for them to strengthen relationships with external trading partners, such as China, to gain economic independence from the U.S.
The upcoming review is an opportunity for all parties to air their frustrations and challenges with the current rules, identify new solutions, and bring their wish list of items to the surface for the future. It is expected that the rules around Country of Origin, or visibility of the source of goods and components not just where they were shipped from, will be a hot topic for negotiators. More specifically, the protection and enforcement of the origin documentation across the three counties who compete against trading partners who are deliberately dodging U.S. tariffs. Additionally, how new enforcement will be conducted, including tools and technology, will be written into the new agreement.
With any large-scale review, all countries will be examining the efficiency of trade processing across borders including infrastructure, consistency of rule applications, and documentation of technology. The anticipated opening of the state-of-the-art Gordie Howe International Bridge provides a clear example of a successful joint effort between Detroit and Canada and mutual support for increasing trade volumes under this new agreement.
Finding Common Ground
Back door negotiations have already begun between countries, to leverage buying power once the formal July review begins. Key focal points for the U.S. include automotive parts, dairy, enforcement of rules, and digital documentation. President Trump has been vocal about his lack of support for the agreement that he redesigned during his first term in office. He has already reached out to seek concessions over the current tariff structure, saying that “zero tariffs” is off the negotiation table.
Despite the politics involved, it is believed that a North American agreement will be reached, as the incentive to do so is overwhelmingly beneficial to all. The timeline for reaching that agreement is unclear, but many sectors are eagerly awaiting the positive results of a new USMCA agreement. Stay tuned for more.